You know it’s election season when the media come out with their biennial analysis on how challenging it will be for Republicans to win in Maine. The last time such a prediction was made was in 2014, when Republicans retook the majority in the Maine Senate and were a couple of hundred votes from having the largest Republican majority since 1972.
Not to disappoint, the BDN is back with this year’s crystal ball prediction, which it published May 20.
The methodology used in the article does not take into account Maine’s political landscape. The BDN largely uses party registration to determine the outcome of the November 2016 races. If party registration were the sole determining factor, the following people never would have been elected: Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Bruce Poliquin and Paul LePage.
Furthermore, the BDN says Senate District 14, which includes Gardiner and other Kennebec County communities, leans Democratic, even though the seat has been held by Republicans since 2006. (The BDN rates this November’s race for the open seat as a toss-up.) Republicans don’t win with voter enrollment; they win because they have a better understanding of issues that matter most to voters.
Let’s talk about some more relevant numbers.
1,200: This is the tiny number of votes, statewide, that prevented Republicans from retaining the Senate majority in 2012, during a huge Democratic wave election year.
16: This is the number of Republican incumbents running for re-election to the state Senate this year; 18 is the magic number for majority. Maine has a long history of re-electing incumbents.
28: It’s been 28 years since Maine Democrats have won a statewide race with a majority of votes.
1 million: This is the amount of dollars Democrats outspent Republicans by in the 2014 state Senate races, only to lose.
Maine’s political landscape is changing right before our eyes. The Gallup polling organization says Maine has shifted from Democrat-leaning to competitive. This has happened because Republicans have continued to demonstrate leadership on issues that matter to Maine voters — welfare reform, job creation and lower taxes — while Democrats continue to support dependency, government intervention and increased government spending.
Everyone expects this to be a challenging election cycle, and Senate Republicans relish the role of being the political underdog. But those who take all the factors into consideration won’t be surprised on election night if the Senate Republicans remain Maine’s majority caucus.
Sen. Michael Thibodeau, R-Winterport, is president of the Maine Senate.