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Abigail Carroll of Biddeford is the incoming co-president of the World Affairs Council of Maine.
I am in France breathing a sigh of relief. For the third time in 20 years, the candidate of the right-wing nationalist party, founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen, made it to the final round of the French presidential elections only to be defeated by a candidate from the center right. Despite Emmanuel Macron’s decisive victory, with 58 percent of the vote, the nationalist party has again inched closer to the big prize. To many, for and against, it feels like just a matter of time.
I was living in Paris in 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen first knocked out the mainstream opposition candidate and positioned his anti-immigration and anti-Europe platform squarely against the incumbent center right candidate Jacques Chirac. The nation was in shock. No one, myself included, could believe a party known for its racism and isolationism was so close to the presidency of France.
“Chirac, the Republic is in your hands!” read the headline of Le Figaro, France’s center right daily, the next morning. L’Humanité printed a red “X” over Le Pen’s photo. By the second round, France was united against Le Pen, propelling Chirac to a landslide victory with over 80 percent of the vote.
This year Marine Le Pen, Le Pen’s daughter, again made it to the presidential runoff for a second showdown with the incumbent center-right candidate, Macron. Le Figaro’s response displayed none of the outrage or shock, simply “Macron – Le Pen: new duel.”
Marine Le Pen took over her father’s Front National party in 2011, determined to make it electable. In 2015, she even tossed out her uncouth father whose vocal racism held the party back.
Her politics, however, remain closely aligned to her father’s: anti-headscarf, Eurosceptic, tough on immigration. An avid supporter of Donald Trump and historically pro-Putin, she denied in a TV interview that the 2014 invasion of Crimea was an invasion.
Issues dominating French politics are the same here as at home: rising prices, labor shortages, climate change, immigration. There’s a sense that the system is rigged in favor of a few while most can’t get ahead. Cultural wars over “le wokisme,” vaccinations, and masks divide the country, and, like at home, are moving the right further right.
The war in Ukraine may ultimately be what spared France a Le Pen victory. Leading up to the runoff, Macron was unrelenting about Le Pen’s ties to Russia, repeatedly citing her 9-million-euro 2017 campaign finance debt at Russian bank with close ties to Putin. Indebted to a despot, Macron asserted she’s “not free.” As Russian President Vladimir Putin escalates attacks on nearby Ukraine, threatening to broaden his target, Macron’s message struck home.
Macron’s offensive on Le Pen’s Russian debt may belie his concern that she could take his seat. But with her skepticism of Western alliances and criticism of Russian sanctions she deems “ineffective,” the consequences of a Le Pen win would have reached far beyond France.
Without its strong France-Germany allied leadership, the European union would weaken precipitously. A weaker Europe and cooler NATO alliance would unravel the current efforts in the Ukraine and hasten a Russia-China alliance, leaving the West in a tailspin.
A Le Pen victory would also have likely emboldened simmering right-wing parties across Europe and in the U.S.
Some factors leading to Le Pen’s win are structural. The French have traditionally used their first-round votes to make a statement to the incumbent government by voting for marginal ideals-driven parties or submitting empty protest ballots.
In parallel, French politics are increasingly dominated by political personalities rather than traditional parties. Neither candidate from the two traditional parties — the Republicans and Socialists — made 5 percent of the votes.
This does not diminish the very real conservative trend ripping through France. As unpalatable as Marine Le Pen may appear, in a more conservative France, she has become somewhat mainstream herself. Former journalist and right-wing sensationalist, Eric Zemmour, was far more extreme and he landed 7 percent of the first-round vote and almost 20 percent in some Paris arrondissements
I was in a cab when the results came in. Marine Le Pen lost, but with 42 percent of the votes, compared to 33 percent in 2017, and her fathers 17 percent in 2002. French friends wrote “oof” (“phew”) on social media. When I expressed my relief to the Haitian cabdriver, he said there was never any doubt who would win. “Madame, France just isn’t ready to elect a woman.”