Politics
Our political journalists are based in the Maine State House and have deep source networks across the partisan spectrum in communities all over the state. Their coverage aims to cut through major debates and probe how officials make decisions. Read more Politics coverage here.
Democrat Troy Jackson is leading U.S. Sen. Susan Collins by 3 percentage points among likely Maine voters in a CNN poll released Wednesday, the latest in a string of surveys with similar findings in the crucial race.
The poll, conducted by the research firm SSRS, found Jackson, the former Maine Senate president, leading Collins 48% to 45%. It tracks with the public polling since Jackson became the Democratic nominee in late July, replacing Graham Platner, who withdrew from the race following a rape allegation.
The result underscores how vulnerable Collins has become in a midterm year shaped by President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in a state he has never carried. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate majority. Maine is one of only a handful of Republican seats presenting a realistic pickup opportunity.
This year’s race looks starkly partisan. In the CNN poll, 94% of Democrats backed Jackson and 92% of Republicans backed Collins. The state’s Democratic lean and Jackson’s narrow 46%-42% lead among independents was decisive in this survey. However, independents were also the least settled group polled. About a quarter said they could still change their minds or hadn’t picked a candidate at all, leaving room for the race to turn.
The poll showed heavy splits by gender and education, with women and college-educated voters breaking hard for Jackson and men and voters without a four-year degree sticking with Collins.
But Collins trailed in nearly every public poll against Democrat Sara Gideon in 2020 before winning by 9 points, a result that her campaign invokes whenever new numbers surface and showed pollsters underestimating her share of crossover support. Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rates the race a toss-up but said last week its “best guess” remains a Collins victory.
This year’s environment remains difficult for Collins. Roughly 7 in 10 likely voters in the CNN poll called Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods a bad thing for Maine, a finding that looms over the Senate race.
Jackson has spent recent weeks arguing Collins has enabled Trump’s tariffs along with his tax cuts and the war in Iran. Collins has voted to block the Canada tariffs and pressed officials to ease them, citing specific hits to Maine industries.
Elsewhere on the ballot, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree holds a wider lead over Republican Bobby Charles, 52% to 39% in the new poll, consistent with two earlier surveys that had her up comfortably in a race to succeed Gov. Janet Mills that also includes independent state Sen. Rick Bennett.
Charles, a former lobbyist and federal official, absorbed a fresh blow Wednesday when his sister, Anita Charles, wrote in the Portland Press Herald that she would vote for Pingree instead, citing her brother’s rhetoric on immigration and his opposition to abortion rights.