Troy Jackson has 4-point lead over Susan Collins in Washington Post poll

Politics
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Troy Jackson is narrowly leading U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in a new poll released Friday.

That poll, conducted by the Washington Post and the Schar School, found 50% of likely Maine voters favored the Democrat, compared with 46% for the Republican incumbent. Jackson’s lead falls within the margin of error, the Post reported.

Those results mirror other recent polls that have given Jackson single-digit leads over Collins, who has led in just one recent poll.

It underscores how competitive the race has become since Jackson became his party’s nominee after Graham Platner dropped out in July when an ex-girlfriend accused him of rape. Republicans and Democrats are spending big in Maine in a midterm election that could upend the balance of power in Washington. Vice President JD Vance has twice visited  Maine this year to boost for Republicans, while President Donald Trump has mused about stumping here ahead of the election. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson on Thursday.

One drag on Collins’ odds this November is Trump’s falling approval rating, with just 36% of likely voters approving of him in the Post-Schar poll. Meanwhile, 58% of voters felt Collins has been too supportive of Trump’s agenda in the U.S. Senate.

Collins has historically been carried to victory, including in 2020 over Democrat Sara Gideon, by ticket-splitting Democratic voters, but there have been signs that fewer Democrats may be willing to cross over into her column under Trump. A Bangor Daily News analysis last month found that Collins needs at least 1 in 10 voters who backed Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential election to carry her to victory.

The Post-Schar poll found that voters favored Jackson on abortion, cost of living and healthcare.

But the poll found positive signs for Collins. She had a 24-point lead over Jackson for her ability to bring federal dollars into Maine. The Pine Tree State has long been a net recipient of federal dollars, getting a $1.68 back for every $1 in taxes paid, according to one estimate. It’s a point that Collins’ campaign has leaned heavily on this season.

The poll surveyed about 800 likely voters between Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, ahead of their two recent debates.

It will be an uphill battle for Democrats to unseat Collins, who officially announced her historic bid for a sixth term in February. The Republican has handily beaten back challengers, including in 2020 when she defied polls and expectations to secure a fifth term in the Senate. But Collins, who has been ranked the country’s most bipartisan senator and relied on cross-party appeal to carry her to victory, has seen her popularity slump since Trump’s first term in the White House.

If Collins is successful in winning a sixth term, she would be Maine’s longest-serving U.S. senator.