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Former Gov. Paul LePage declared victory Wednesday afternoon over Democrat Matt Dunlap in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which would flip the seat to Republicans and hand his party its only win in the state’s marquee races on a night of sweeping Democratic gains.
LePage, a Republican, had 49.9% of votes to 48.8% for Dunlap, the state auditor, with an estimated 93% of votes tallied at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday. The Bangor Daily News and its national partner, Decision Desk HQ, have not yet called the race.
If the results hold, his victory will stand almost alone for Maine Republicans. Democrat Troy Jackson ousted U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in a kept the governor’s office in her party’s hands for the first time since 1958, and Democrats expanded their majorities in the Legislature.
LePage will be the only Republican in Maine’s congressional delegation and the only one in New England’s House delegation. But it was close in a district President Donald Trump carried three times. LePage trailed Dunlap by about 1,000 votes early Wednesday before late returns from small, Republican-leaning rural towns pushed him ahead.
The 78-year-old who grew up homeless in Lewiston served two terms as governor before losing a 2022 comeback bid to Gov. Janet Mills by 13 points, although he carried the 2nd District in that race. He will be one of the oldest freshmen in the history of the House and returns to elected office for the first time since leaving the Blaine House in 2019.
The seat opened when U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a centrist Democrat who won four terms in the district by winning over ticket-splitting Republicans, announced last November that he would not seek reelection. National Republicans made it a top target, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, campaigned twice in Maine for LePage.
LePage ran on his record of cutting taxes as governor and on protecting Social Security. He touted his personal relationship with Trump, saying he could get into the Oval Office, while saying he opposed the president’s tariffs on Canada in their current form and did not support the Iran war. Trump, Johnson and the National Rifle Association endorsed him.
Dunlap, 61, of Old Town, is a former secretary of state and onetime head of the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine. He ran a progressive campaign, backing Medicare for All and a war powers resolution to end the Iran war.
He attacked LePage over his age, his alignment with Trump and his support for parts of the Republican tax-and-spending law that cut federal Medicaid funding. He also questioned whether LePage truly lives in Maine, prompting LePage to call himself a “snowbird” who spends winters in Florida during their second and final debate.
But Dunlap’s path to the nomination was rocky. National Democrats warned him against challenging Golden and backed state Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Bangor, in the June primary, only rallying behind Dunlap after he won the four-way race in a ranked-choice count. Late in the campaign, he drew attention for faulting Golden more over votes with Republicans.
The race drew heavy national money, though the $35 million in advertising from outside groups fell short of the $42 million spent on Golden’s 2024 race against former state Rep. Austin Theriault, according to AdImpact. A group tied to Trump’s political operation and the Johnson-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund backed LePage, while House Majority PAC backed Dunlap.
LePage led Dunlap by 5 points in final polls from The New York Times/Siena College and the University of New Hampshire, but the margin on Election Day was slimmer. Marie Johnson, a 79-year-old Republican in Bangor, said she voted for LePage because he cares, citing his famous life story.
“He’s been through a lot in his own life,” she said.