Former Gov. Paul LePage was in position early Wednesday to hand Maine Republicans their only major win of a bruising night, even as he trailed State Auditor Matt Dunlap by about 1,000 votes in the 2nd Congressional District.
The rest of the ballot went the other way. Democrat Troy Jackson ousted U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, helping his party take control of the Senate. Democrat Hannah Pingree won the governor’s race, and Democrats expanded their majorities in both chambers of the Legislature.
That leaves LePage as the only Republican with a chance to be part of Maine’s congressional delegation next year. A win would flip a seat Democrats have held since 2018 and make him New England’s only Republican in the U.S. House.
It will be close. A Bangor Daily News analysis of the returns rates the race as likely to go to LePage. That is not a call. Decision Desk HQ, the BDN’s national partner, had not called the race as of 3 a.m. Wednesday and rated it a toss-up before Tuesday. But LePage is clearly favored, and the race also looks unlikely to need a ranked-choice count.
An estimated 57,000 votes remained to be counted in 111 towns as of early Wednesday, with Dunlap leading by just 1,000. To hold on, Dunlap would need the remaining towns to favor LePage by no more than about 2 points.
The problem for Dunlap is that there are much more Republicans than that. Those towns backed Republicans by about 9 points in 2024, when the district as a whole was roughly even.
In 2026, they are running redder. Based on towns already counted, the BDN’s model expects the outstanding towns to favor LePage by about 13 points. At that rate, he would net about 7,700 votes and win by roughly 6,700. Even at the low end of the model’s range, he would net about 5,800, more than five times what he needs.
Dunlap’s best remaining town is likely to be Farmington, the only large Democratic-leaning town still out, which is expected to net him about 740 votes. Sabattus, Oxford and Pittsfield together are expected to net LePage about 1,100, and most of his projected margin comes from roughly 105 small, rural towns that have not yet reported.
Blank ballots and 149 write-ins could still leave the winner just short of a majority and trigger a ranked-choice count, as in 2024. The BDN could still call the race if those ballots cannot change the outcome.