More than a year of friction among Democrats over Maine’s 2nd Congressional District showed few signs of fizzling out after State Auditor Matt Dunlap conceded last week’s election to former Gov. Paul LePage.
In a year when Democrats stand to gain roughly 40 House seats, according to Decision Desk HQ projections, the 2nd District is the only one they are likely to lose in a district whose lines hadn’t changed. Allies of centrist U.S. Rep. Jared Golden say he would have held the seat had he sought a fifth term, and many Republicans privately agree.
Dunlap and his allies reject the idea that he ran too far to the left, pointing to his focus on the Second Amendment and polls showing universal healthcare is increasingly popular. They also note he outperformed U.S. Sen.-elect Troy Jackson in the district by more than 10 points.
“Hell, I was winning till lunch [the day after Election Day],” Dunlap said Friday. “The blue tsunami didn’t happen here. Where we had a 4-point difference, in other states it was 10 or 20 points’ difference. It’s an older demographic that’s less volatile. We waged the campaign we needed to wage.”
The blame game has already turned to 2028. Outgoing state Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Bangor, the June primary runner-up, says another bid is on his radar, and Dunlap hasn’t ruled one out.
The Bangor Daily News and Decision Desk HQ have not called the race, which heads to a ranked-choice count Monday. But LePage declared victory Wednesday with a lead of about 5,400 first-choice votes, far more than the blank and write-in ballots left in the count can erase.
If LePage’s lead holds, the 2nd District, which President Donald Trump won by 9 points in 2024, will be the most Democratic-leaning seat in the country held by a Republican, according to presidential results calculated by The Downballot. That reflects the depth of Republican losses, which included at least nine seats rated by Decision Desk HQ as likely Republican.
“It’s very inexpensive to throw bad apples,” Dunlap said, referring to criticism from within his party.
They threw plenty.
Golden himself tipped his hat on X on Thursday to LePage for “winning in the midst of this Blue Tsunami” in a post that did not mention Dunlap. Blue Dog Bark, an X account tied to the coalition of moderate and conservative House Democrats that Golden helps lead, mocked Dunlap’s sportsman persona and his criticism of Golden late in the race.
“Turns out Elmer Fudd cosplay and attacking the Marine the district voted for four times was not a good idear,” the account posted, spelling the last word to echo the Maine accent.
Dunlap supporters counter that LePage’s name recognition would have posed significant headwinds even for Golden, who beat Republican Austin Theriault by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2024. Harry Burke, Dunlap’s campaign manager, cited significant ticket-splitting in his campaign’s favor. He cast the critics as outsiders settling scores.
Betsy Sweet, a retired lobbyist and progressive who ran for Senate in 2020 and supported Dunlap early in his primary challenge to Golden, said his positions on healthcare, housing and “Medicare for All” didn’t hurt him. She said earlier help from national Democrats, who were slow to invest in the race, might have put him over the edge.
“They were punishing him,” Sweet said.
A Democratic House operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, rejected that, pointing to uneven results nationally.
“Not all districts are created equal,” the operative said. “There were also Trump 10-plus seats on the map where Democrats came up short, whether they had investment or not.”
Baldacci, the national party’s pick in the primary, said Golden likely would have won, calling LePage “rusty and out of touch.” But he had kind words for the man who beat him in June.
“I think Matt ran an honorable campaign and is clearly the better candidate and a good public servant,” Baldacci said. “The dynamics of the district are very independent.”
He said it’s too early to talk about 2028, but several people have asked him to consider a run. Dunlap, who can run twice more for his job as state auditor, said he’s still processing the loss before thinking about another run for federal office.
Across the aisle, LePage’s team was taking a victory lap. Brent Littlefield, who ran former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin’s two losing campaigns against Golden, wrote on X on Saturday that national leaders and elected officials have been calling to ask how LePage pulled it off.
LePage’s daughter, Lauren LePage, who worked on his campaign, had a message for Democrats already talking about 2028.
“This was your moment. You failed,” she wrote. “He didn’t barely win in an R+5 year. He won in the most hostile climate we’ve seen in many cycles.”