WASHINGTON — Republicans need to pick up four more seats to take control of the Senate, and they began 2012 with many plans for how to do so — none of which envisioned a pitched battle to hold on to Indiana.
But Tuesday’s landslide victory in the GOP primary by Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative who beat longtime Sen. Richard Lugar, gave Democrats hope for claiming a seat they have not seriously contested in three decades.
The sudden opening reflects a growing sense that the potential for big Republican gains has begun to ebb and that Democrats have a real chance of hanging onto their majority.
“Eight months ago, I thought that Republicans had a 60 to 65 percent chance of taking the majority. Now, it’s a 50-50 proposition as to whether Republicans can take the majority,” said Jennifer Duffy, a longtime expert on Senate races who works for the independent Cook Political Report.
Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said he places his “pinky on the scale” now for Democrats retaining the majority, but added that his calculation hinges on economic improvements, particularly as reflected in the monthly unemployment numbers. “A few more months of less than 200,000 new jobs, and I take my pinky off that scale,” Rothenberg said.
If Mourdock, a longtime politician twice elected to statewide office, can unify Republicans, he should be a favorite in GOP-leaning Indiana. But if his candidacy gets swept up in the fervor of the tea party movement, as some 2010 Republican nominees did, then Indiana could turn into a headache for national Republicans who would prefer not to expend resources to defend that seat.
“Lugar’s loss in Indiana put the seat in play, but only marginally improved Democrats’ chances of picking it up,” Duffy said.
But it was not supposed to come down to this: Republicans gained six Democratic seats in the 2010 midterm elections and early on, 2012 looked to be even easier, with 23 Democrats up for re-election, compared with 10 Republicans. The Democratic president was deeply unpopular, and six Democratic incumbents and one independent who generally votes with them announced plans to retire. Those departures gave Republicans seven open-seat targets to pick from.
Democratic retirements in solidly red Nebraska (Ben Nelson) and North Dakota (Kent Conrad) seemed like sure GOP pickups, while vulnerable incumbents in Missouri and Montana, both of which Obama lost in 2008, seemed to be laying the groundwork for a GOP majority.
Originally, strategists and analysts were predicting that those two races probably would decide the majority. GOP gains in Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota would push Republicans to 50 seats, and a victory in either Montana or Virginia would seal the evolution of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky to majority leader.
Republicans still appear to be in fairly good shape in Nebraska, even though Democrats recruited former Sen. Bob Kerrey to run. In Missouri, Sen. Claire McCaskill, who won with 50 percent of the vote in 2008, appears to be in less trouble than anticipated even though that race is expected to be close, no matter who emerges as the GOP nominee. In North Dakota, Democrats have recruited former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp to face the winner of a June 12 GOP primary between Rep. Rick Berg and 2000 Senate nominee Duane Sand.
But the professional handicappers say that although they still expect GOP gains, Democrats are slightly favored to retain their majority.
According to Rothenberg and Duffy, Republicans have some lackluster candidates, particularly in three Democratic seats that were expected to be easier targets: Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota. Republicans continue to be hopeful about those three seats in large part because each of those states has grown increasingly Republican in recent years, putting the Democratic incumbents at some disadvantage.
A few key primaries will determine the slate of candidates, particularly in Nebraska and Wisconsin, where tea party activists are trying to rally opposition to GOP establishment figures.
Their strongest recruits are Rep. Denny Rehberg of Montana, whose district comprises the entire state and is a well-known figure, and former Sen. George Allen of Virginia, who nearly won re-election in 2006 despite running a poor campaign. Those two will face off against well-known figures, too: Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., and former Gov. Timothy Kaine of Virginia, making those two races potentially epic battles that could go down to the final days of the campaign as neck and neck.
That was the thinking last summer and fall when Democrats appeared to have few chances to chase GOP-held seats. Since then, Democrats have opportunities in Massachusetts, Maine and Nevada.
Former Obama adviser and Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a liberal icon and her Senate race against incumbent Scott Brown, R-Mass., has become a rallying point for Democrats far beyond Massachusetts. Warren has raised nearly $16 million since she entered the race eight months ago. Her missteps over her claims of Native American heritage have raised questions about how she will handle the day-to-day work of political glad-handing that Massachusetts voters are accustomed to, but her campaign will have abundant resources in a state in which Brown will have to outperform presumed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by roughly 500,000 votes in order to win.
In Nevada, Sen. Dean Heller, R, and Rep. Shelley Berkley, D, are in a tight race that could depend on how well Obama and Romney do in that battleground state.
The biggest break for Democrats came with the surprise retirement of Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, who, despite her moderate views, faced no real challenge in her primary and was likely to cruise to re-election. Now, former Gov. Angus King, an independent, is running for her seat and most observers think he will win and caucus with Democrats.
Oh, my. There’s whistling past the graveyard, and then there’s… Beethoven.
It doesn’t matter either way, not with this new filibuster culture of the Senate.
Keeping Democrats in charge will keep the same economy we have had since Pelosi and Reid took over in 2007. Fewer people working, more debt. This is the definition of European style socialism.
So we are blaming Pelosi and Reid, who became Speaker and Leader in 2007 for the decades of deregulation of banks and financial markets that lead to the massive asset bubble that caused the financial collapse that started in summer of 2008? We are also blaming them for the former surplus turned massive deficit (that was already massive in 2006)? We should obviously keep them in power because they must have access to a time machine!
The liberal, vote with Obama and D’s Lugar was ousted, but the media people want to portray it as a disaster for Republicans, because Mr. Mourdock is a staunch conservative. Mourdock will beat Donnelly hands down!
Funny what staunch conservatives turn out to be conserving little as they drive around in their high end cars to board their private jets and helicopters proving in the end that they are only conspicuous consumers.
O f course Angus King will caucus with Democrats if elected, because he is a solid Democrat–just as Eliot Cutler is a strong D turned Independent, realizing early on that he could not win the D primary with that distinction.
To say that Olympia was facing no strong opposition is very much untrue. Scott D’Amboise had taken the challenge beginning 2 years ago, but was not given any recognition by the Maine Republican leadership, because he is too conservative for their blood! Scott had the intestinal fortitude to run BEFORE she announced that she would not seek another term, and that should be recognized now. Olympia was told that she could lose the primary(maybe a la the same demise as Richard Lugar in Indiana), so she figured “now is the hour that I must say goodbye.”
How well Angus does depends to a huge extent on the leadership and vision he makes clear during his campaign and less on how closely he lock-step’s with the mainstream Democrat’s. There is a desperate need for the ability to discuss, debate, negotiate and compromise in the Senate. Angus has the opportunity to establish Maine as a State that’s smart enough to realize that those trait’s are what’s needed, not more die-hard Rightwing flag waving and ‘At any Cost’ speech’s. We’ve seen that enough already with Perry, Santorum and Bachmann. Look how far it got them. Look at how far, and what that type of position, has Wisconsin in. Do we really want to subject Maine to that, all for the satisfaction of showing the rest of the Country that we’re what they expect us to be ? I sure don’t. How about you ?
Scott D’amboise is the man we need to get in there. And for all you out there Let’s not put Raye in for congressman, really I dont think I need to point this out but just in case you live under a rock, we need to get Richardson in that position.