How much — or little — Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s victory in his recall election Tuesday tells us about the state of play heading into the fall election is an open question.
What we can answer is why Walker won. We put that question to Democratic and Republican strategists in the final days of the recall campaign and developed a clear image of what went right for the incumbent — or, as accurately, wrong for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, D.
It’s always important to remember that no win or loss in politics is ever attributable to a single factor, and so all of the following reasons worked together to ensure that Walker won and Barrett didn’t.
— The Democratic primary: To hear those who worked in the trenches of the recall effort tell it, the fact that Democrats had a contested primary between Barrett and former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk bears considerable responsibility for Walker’s victory. Organized labor spent millions in support of Falk (and against Barrett), spending that many Democrats believe weakened the eventual nominee. Democratic pollsters insisted that Walker was languishing in the early spring but rebounded as Barrett and Falk fought among themselves in the primary.
— Money: As of Monday, more than $63 million had been spent on the recall fight, with Walker and his conservative allies vastly outspending Barrett and other Democratic-aligned groups.
— 2010: There was considerable internal discussion and disagreement between Washington and Wisconsin Democrats (and organized labor) about whether to push for a recall election this summer or wait until 2014 for a chance to unseat Walker. (Washington Democrats broadly favored the latter option, Wisconsin Democrats and labor the former.)
As the recall effort played out, it became clear that those few who were undecided tended to resist the recall effort because Walker had just been elected in 2010.
— Milwaukee: As is true in any state that has a single dominant city in terms of population and profile, there is resentment toward that city from everyone who doesn’t live in it. Barrett’s ties to Milwaukee, therefore, wound up hurting him far more than many Democrats expected at the start of the contest.
Walker’s original campaign included promises to do just what he did and angered many people. A rerun against his former opponent with the same promises came out with the same result.
Pretty much says it all.
That’s false!
The whole reason for the recall was because he misrepresented himself.
I heard that also.
In 2010 while running as a Republican he presented himself as a closet Democrat, card carrying member of the AFSCME union. ( with a honorary membership in SEIU), He wanted to expand the role of government and give his major union contributors power over state government and put every able body person he could find on the public dole. Tax corporations and individuals at 90% like the good old days.
Yep. Walker misrepresented himself. No doubt about it!!
He never once said that he would end collective bargaining.
Even during the recall Debates he refused to answer the question as to weather he would veto a bill changing Wisconsin to a Right to Work State.
He kept saying that it wouldnt get to his desk rather than answer the question!
However,
The Democrats have now made sure of {that} as they now are majority in the Legislature as a result of the Recalls!
He is now effectively just a 27 million dollar deficeit on the Republican Party and an energiser to the Democratic base.
No more Radical Agenda.
You can believe the MSNBC talking points if you like. But we live in a new world, what was true in post ww2 America as we rebuilt the world is no longer true today. You need to adjust your outmoded thinking.
You must be another fan of CNN and MSNBC. Ya, their reporting is so unbiased…..
There wasn’t any recall. He won. They lost.
The author lists all the reasons he won except the real one…..he got the support of the voters !
It will be very interesting listening to Stephanie Miller and Ed Schultz today. Both raked the DNC over the coals for not spending money in Wisconsin. Both called into question why the President didn’t make an appearance when he was just over the border in Minneapolis.
I turned the channel to MSNBC when I got web news they called the election. Looking at the faces of the MSNBC anchors told the whole story. Angry little people Maddow Schultz.
MSLSD! You have to be on drugs to watch those hacks… I think two things happened last night. 1) Push back against public employee unions and their arrogance. 2) People of good will in Wisconsin… R’s, D’s & I’s in my opinion did not feel that because of policy differences that their Governor should be recalled. Here in Maine, I disagreed with many policies of the Baldacci administration and voted against him. However, I never doubted his integrity, beliefs or competence, and I would have never supported a recall of him based on political differences. Policy differences are not high crimes and misdemeanors!!! They are not competency issue. Do we really want to go down the road of recalling a popularly elected official over policy? Heck we would become Italy… with Governments falling every six months.
You won’t find me disagreeing with anything you said.
Did they go to Walmart and buy all the tissues they had…LOL
Did you see the guy crying during an interview on CNN. Funny really… “Boo Hoo Sob Sob
Democracy died today!!”” sob sob…
No I didnt, this is an example why Mr. LePage will be reelected, only Democrats against him are the ones who post here, which isnt that many..LOL… 6.5 more years of a great leader….
Saw the “crying” fit on CNN from the Barrett supporter……it was quite, well it was something…..
Maybe Obama didn’t get in that fight because he is already carrying Wisconsin. Also it wasn’t his fight.
Well stated and spot on…..
As usual you are correct, Stevey told me so..
Who needs voters when you got the Koch brothers…
Sour grapes I sense. The people of Wisconsin have realized that a bus driver should not be earning $150K annually. When that happens, it proves the system and unions are corrupt. The citizens of Wisconsin clearly stated their opposition to corruption. Your pointing to the Koch Bros is merely a deflection strategy that all liberal posters use continually.
and the kochs aren’t corrupt?
Having problems staying on topic?
Is George Soros?
Every villain the left has the right can find one of similar fashion.
This vote was to wide to be simply explained away by ad buys.
Please, tell it to the Cap Times.
They are private citizens. If anything, they are corrupting.
I have my coach license…how can I get me one of them $150k/yr gigs?
So true…
( The citizens of Wisconsin clearly stated their opposition to corruption}
Thats true!
The Legislature is now in the hands of the Democrats and Scott Walkers Radical Agenda has been put on hold!
Umm..not as of yet. And they come up for re-election this year
Radical agenda? Sometimes progress needs to be radical, especially if a car is headed off a cliff. Since Walker took over, no lay-offs, the state coffers are now in the black, unemployment is WAY down…. it sounds like progress to me! Next up…. Chicago teachers. They are demanding a 30% pay increase! Get ready Rahm!
“The Legislature is now in the hands of the Democrats.” That may be technically true, but it is meaningless. The Wisconsin legislature is adjourned and will not come back into session until January 7, 2013, that is, not until after the November elections. So hold your breath – nothing is going to happen any time soon.
And by the way, don’t kid yourself that Wisconsin is an isolated phenomenon. Take a look at the results in San Jose and San Diego last evening where voters overwhelmingly approved measures to curb public employee pensions. Even voters in overwhelmingly blue states are waking up to the fact that generous public employee benefits are unsustainable.
Public employees deserve the same right to collective bargaining as anyone else. If there is a problem with the pay and or benefits then they should be negotiated in good faith.
Depriving the equal rights of State employees by taking away their rights to negotiate is unconscienable and some may say an unconstitutional .
Where you against Obama & Unions plan for card check ?
which would take away everyone right to a secret ballot?
They work for the taxpayers and voting citizens of Wisconsin. The voters can giveth, and the voters can taketh away.
The Koch Brothers Need voters!
I hear that they buy them by the dozen!
I was pleased to see the voters of Wisconsin stick around for the vote. For all we knew they would run away to another state and stomp their feet.
You are correct, this is hillarious!!!!! Talk about egg in the face.
Why did Scott Walker win?
Because Americans – in this case, Wisconsinites – have a bit of a tendency to be ignorant, uninformed, fearful of change, and absolutely terrible at making good choices.
What’s wrong with the mayor who just won’t give up? Also nice to see that special interests cannot win at the recall vote rather than by changing the laws enacted during Walkers term in office, which would have been the best way to win their points. The fact remains that runaway benefits granted to these government unions is crippling the country with its required turn to European styled benefit programs. This is social democracy in action. Greece is a prime example. When the dust settles there must be someone standing to pay the bills.
Yes Greece is a prime example, they elected 21 Nazis into
their senate, I wonder how many we’ll end up with next election? Does that picture of Walker remind you of
anyone? …. Walker for VP!
the unions suck the state of maine pays union reps several weeks of pay to attend union functions. Thats robbing the taxpayer as is fair share is robbing the workers.
Not true.
Busing into the state capital hundreds of “hired” (out of state) protestors didn’t help the image of the Democrats either !!
Hired means paid.
Back that up if you can.
Your use of quotes means you’re giving that word another contextual meaning.
Just what you mean isn’t clear.
Oh, look. A right winger spewing complete and utter lies as fact. What a surprise.
I am glad I don’t live in Wisconsin. Besides the fact there ain’t no clams. I can agree with some of the union bashing, but GOP and Tea Zealots are beyond the realms of reality. GOP=Grover’s Own Party. This election does validate Walkers claim that there is a problem regarding teachers/education in Wisconsin at least for those who have a grasp for the obvious. Looks like only about 40% for WI.
The voters spoke.
Democracy in action.
Money Spoke!
Stupid People Listened!
good its time to take back the state.
Now the Dems and BDN start their spin. Just a preview for them when November comes but they wish to close their eyes to that.
This article makes excuses for why the Democrats lost and there are many. An important unmentioned one was that 36% of union members voted for Walker.
A very telling stat from this voting……
Cheese knows his stuff, Stevey told me so…LOL
:)
In this comment you cite the exit poll and then in another comment you say not to give credence to it. LOL, can’t make up your mind?
The poll had a 6 point Democratic bias. No reason to think the actual number might be 6 points higher than the 36%. (42%) It is in error because it under counted Walker/Republican votes.
So the BDN reliably turns to the discredited Wasahington Post to explain to us hicks in the sticks why Gov. Walker prevailed, and the WP reliably fails to point to the real reasons, credibly explained at http://www.nationalreview.com :
1)The recall effort itself was unfair – after all, Walker just did what he said he would do. The recall results mirrored his margin of victory in 2010.
2) Taxpayers resent public sector unions being in control of how much they receive in benefits and pensions, and want to see them pay their “fair share”, to use a worn-out phrase. Union member pay and benefits still exceed private sector medians considerably, with a much lower risk of termination.
3) Even public-sector union members apparently believe it is not just for union dues to be automatically deducted from their paychecks. Tens of thousands have left WI public-sector unions since this despicable demand was lifted last year.
Henry Olsen: “The majority private-sector taxpayer decided it was unfair to pay public-sector-union employees substantially above market compensation, and was willing to take a radical step to bring compensation more in line… The exit polls show that some of Walker’s margin was owing to a sense that the recall itself was unfair. Only 30 percent of the voters thought a recall should be used for any reason whatsoever, and this group was highly favorable to Democrat Tom Barrett. The remaining 70 percent of Wisconsinites thought recalls should be used only in cases of official misconduct, and Walker heavily carried those voters. On the core question of collective-bargaining repeal, Walker’s position was favored by a narrow 50–48 margin.”
National Review Editors: “Walker won because his reform program is popular, and because it is working. The governor’s personal approval numbers in Wisconsin hover around 50 percent — not bad for a man who most Wisconsinites have seen Photoshopped into a Hitler mustache and Nazi regalia at least once in the last year. But more telling is the popularity of Walker’s reforms. According to one recent Reason-Rupe poll, 72 percent of Wisconsinites favor the requirement that public-sector workers increase their pension contributions to 6 percent of their salaries. And 71 percent favor making government employees pay 12 percent instead of 6 percent of their health-care premiums.”
Way to go, Governor Walker! Hope you are paying attention, Gov. LePage.
Perhaps he won because voters aren’t as dumb as Democrats and unions think they are.
A kick in the teeth to unions all across the country. Only about 10% of our workforce is unionized, and it looks like the 90% has spoken. We are sick and tired of their whining and spoiled brat like wailing. Get a life and get to work like the rest of us have to do.
Envy much?
The Captain loves it when slaves on the slave ship side with the captain!
Lets just hope its the beginning of the end of both the unions and the democrats. Our country would be much better off without them.
This is the beginning of the end of liberalism.
According to Jay Cost this is why….
For most of the post-World War II era, Cost argues, our debates over
taxing and spending have taken place in an atmosphere of surplus. The
operative question has been how best to
divide a growing pie, which has
enabled politicians in both parties to practice a kind of
ideologically-flexible profligacy.
But not anymore. Between our slowing growth and our unsustainable
spending commitments, “the days when lawmakers could give to some
Americans without shortchanging others are over; the politics of
deciding who loses what, and when and how, is upon us.”
Get a job!
Have one thank you. Actually 3 or 4 depending on how you count them.
{ Actually 3 or 4 depending on how you count them. }
You must work counting votes for the Republican Party then!
Coincidentally, just a few post ago, I was thinking just that about you ! LOL
Oh BDN, your excuses are lame. It’s really quite simple. Walker won because his budgetary restraints are working and make sense to the majority of Wisconsinites.
Just when you think the country is failing from the cancer called liberalism. Wisconsin makes one realize there is hope for the U.S. Maybe we can survive this attack from within.
The only place to find out about our election system is bradblog.
14. Fraudulent elections
Elections in the form of plebiscites or public opinion polls were usually bogus. When actual elections with candidates were held, they would usually be perverted by the power elite to get the desired result. Common methods included maintaining control of the election machinery, intimidating and disenfranchising opposition voters, destroying or disallowing legal votes, and, as a last resort, turning to a judiciary beholden to the power elite.NOTE: The above 14 Points was written in 2004 by Dr. Laurence Britt, a political scientist. Dr. Britt studied the fascist regimes of: Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia), and Pinochet (Chile).
Another reason Walker is said to be the winner of the Wis. election. Of course, WE couldn’t actually count the ballots in this highly technical society. A flip of the switch is so much easier .
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9332
“said to be the winner” .. :) So how much money do you figure Brad makes a day on his blog from hits by the paranoid and true believers?
The republicans told the democrats to come smell their dairy air.
do you think that when the Democratic Reps. in Wis. ran/hid away to a neighboring state in order not to vote on certain articles the image of the Dem. party was helped ?? That was NOT very good advice.
They should of been fired.
Start packin’, Barry and Michelle…
Because only Wisconsin will be deciding who our next President is?
No, Because the demographic that the Democrats counted on for votes didn’t materialize for them but for Walker. That means that possibly states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania that have similar demographics may move a little more red.
Think about this for a second. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 11 points. Last night a faulty exit poll has Obama up by only 6 now. Even if you accept the poll that is a 6 percentage point drop from 2008. Obama’s margin of victory was 7 in Pennsylvania, 2 in Ohio and 13 in Michigan. That puts all three of those states into the toss-up category.
If you figure the exit polls were wrong, as facts in the Walker election bore out , these states likely go red in November.
A lot of things can happen, of course, but things are tougher for Obama than you think.
Again, thank you for letting me know how I think ;)
the “generic” you of course.
Even the “generic” him cant figure this one out.
All 57 states will have a voice in this…
The alternative is Romney’s Amercia.
…and your point is…?
If you actually believe that Obama thinks that there are 57 states, then you also have to believe that Romney thinks America is spelled “Amercia.”
There is quite a bit of difference between a graphics person making a spelling error and a President of the US making a mistake like that.
It’s still a stupid and petty thing to obsess over, especially after all this time. Do you honestly believe that someone had to pull Obama aside and inform him that no, there aren’t 57 states? So pathetic.
Then you had no need to make a big deal about a posters comment on the subject.
Thank you for telling me what I need to do. I really do wish I could have you by my side all day long nannying me.
He does have a point, why let it bother you?????
Why does it matter? I replied to a comment. The same exact thing you’ve done. Should every comment include a footnote that outlines the reasoning for replying? Why let my comment bother you? Why don’t you ask anewvoice why the 57 states comment bothers him/her all these years later? Let’s keep going in circles here.
Doesnt bother me, I just hate to see someone so upset over nothing…
You set up the rubric. Responding to something silly makes me upset and bothered. You’re responding to me, so according to your rubric, you are upset and bothered over nothing as well.
Not me, I could careless.
Do I sense the need for a Dr. Phil moment…..??
Dr. Phil knows…LOL
So is it “a stupid and petty thing to obsess over” or not?
It is. That’s why I said it is. But replying to a comment isn’t a mark of obsession. Constantly bringing up a silly mistake made over 4 years ago however? I think so.
Nuclear vs. Nuculear…. it was a petty thing, but the libs rode it hard for many years and beat Bush to death over it. No different than corpsmen or tallyban from Obama. There is pettiness on BOTH sides. Glasshouses anyone?
Two important takeways from this. First, many people will not support a recall ever because they believe once the voters have acted in electing someone, they are due their full term. I am in that camp myself. Regardless of positions, we do damage to our elections when we meddle and try to undo what we have done legitimately. It would be a travesty to see recalls happening and distracting our leaders from doing their jobs in mid-cycle.
The other takeaway is that the exit polls showed very strong support for Obama. That is counter intuitive but in some ways speaks to my first point.
If you are a republican celebrating this as a harbinger of November, you might want to consider that the same electorate that gave Walker a handy victory yesterday preferred Obama by a comfortable 6 point margin. This is NOT good news for candidate Romney…..
Those early exit polls that gave Obama a 6 point margin gave a 50%-50% Walker-Barrett split and a race to close to call. As we know the actually voting margin was a walk over for Walker. I think you are reading too much into this “poll”.
Most prognosticators moved Wisconsin to the toss-up category a month ago. There is nothing in yesterdays data to change that.
The exit poll says that 18% of those who voted for Walker would would vote Obama if the Presidential election was today.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html
It’s cute how you hand pick the aspects of polls you like and then ignore and dismiss the ones you don’t. How convenient.
Doesn’t change the fact that the poll had a Democratic bias of about 6%.
Polling that showed Walker by 14 also had Obama by 7. Seven is just barely in play but very low probability. I wouldn’t be salivating over those numbers if I were a Romney supporter.
check my post above to wolfndear.
Mainers….our chance is coming, too.
The near half century of Big New England Progressive Government has pushed us to this point. We’ll break these shackles yet with the votes our awesome, breathtakingly wise Founding Fathers left us, knowing we’d need them when they were no longer here with us!
Isn’t it strange though the double-digit percentage that voted for Walker but also indicated they’d be voting for Obama in the fall?
Not strange at all. Many who voted for Walker were simply voting to retain the peoples choice in the election that seated him. Like myself, many do not care for recalls. They can create a messy environment where our leaders spend even more time campaigning instead of governing.
I do not care for Walker’s tactics but I would have been an Obama supporter who voted to let the Governor serve out the term the people elected him to serve. There are many who felt this way.
You might also consider the impacts of outspending Barrett 7 to 1.
In America, land of democracy, the better funded candidate wins over 90% of the time. Perhaps if Romney could raise $7B, he might have a chance…..
I think you’re right. If you look at the exit poll done by Edison, it shows that most only support recalls in extreme circumstances. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html
For most there has to be evidence of wrongdoing. I am with that camp. Democracy means sometimes you have to sit back and let the peoples decision play out. It can seem long and painful but we can’t always win and in the end it gives the opposition something to run against.
I lie at the exit polls every time.
Being independent allows the freedom to recognize the pros an cons of both parties. From this vantage point, I believe both the donkeys and the elephants have sold us out.
Money talked and Walker prevailed.
I sense a little animosity..LOL
I sense you have a sound argument that money was completely irrelevant to Walker’s ability to fend off a recall.
Have at it Gomer.
Money buys votes?????/ Maybe a few…… If that was the case Obama bought his way into office too…..Both sides have boat loads of money,.
yes thats right Obama had a billion dollars his last election.
Obama took Wall Street money as did McCain. Obama however, raised records in small small amounts online.
doesn’t matter any more with citizens united decision by supreme court. that was a game changer.
Political negative ads on steroids have horrible influence.
This is hillarious, look at the tax payers money that got wasted.. People power…….
I guess the Democrats arent as strong as they think they are……Poor Unions..LOL
Voter Fraud is alive and well in Wisconsin!
Yea it got 46% of the vote for Tom Barrett
Typical liberal spin.. they continue to blame every thing except the true cause of the poor economy and no jobs which is government spending and taxes… The obama washington of spreading the wealth on the backs of us working people will continue it downward trend.. if not the country will.
Wisconsin, I hope is the start of the end of obama and his hollywood and media non-value added group.
YEA YEA for the USA!!!
Hundreds of billions have been cut and trillions are on the way. You need a reality check.
What are u smoking today… like having wolf and deer together don’t work??
I’m sorry you want to ignore reality, but cuts have been made and more are coming. That’s fact.
When is Obama’s $500 billion cut FROM medicare going to happen?
Will you be loudly broadcasting that Obama is cutting $500 BILLION from poor sick old folks ! (who vote)
Medicare cuts are in proposals from both sides, so you don’t get to demonize the President for doing exactly what Republicans would do. The only side that seems to be insisting on more spending is Republicans who want to renege on the debt ceiling deal and increase the Defense budget. Bunch of hypocrites.
Who has been more responsible for the growth in government spending? Here is the annualized growth in real per capita government spending by president:
Nixon/Ford 2.8% Republican),
Carter 2.1% (Democrat down),
Reagan 2.6% (Republican up);
Bush I 2.1% (Republican down),
Clinton 0.85% (Democrat down, way down);
Bush II 2.6% (Republican, up again),
and Obama 1.3% (Democrat and down again).
Mr.Mayor took advantage of one of the reforms that Gov.Walker implemented. He saved Milwaukee a reported $ 15 million. The Mayor then runs against the Guv ! A real principled candidate he was !
It’s looking more and more like the Republicans and Mitt Romney will win in November. If they do what they have in mind, I think the economy of the USA will go downhill in the same way that it did during the last years of the George Bush administration. To use the phrase ‘go downhill’ in connection with the Bush administration is a gross understatement. ‘Off a cliff’ would be more appropriate.
Mitt Romney might pay more taxes on the $20 plus million a year that he has been able to earn from his investments during the Obama presidency, but in a Romney presidency, he might very well find himself making far less money when the economy goes in the tank. The Dow Jones sank to just over 6500 in March, 2009, a couple of months after George Bush headed west. In May, 2012, it had more than doubled in value to 13,300. Barack Obama had been in office for three years and four months.
I often wonder why Mitt Romney doesn’t campaign for Obama’s re-election. President Obama has helped him earn a lot of money.
Maybe Walker won because the people of Wisconsin
are intelligent. Looks like even DEMS voted for him.
How many “union” members have stopped paying
dues? How will the unions survive now that they have
to collect their own dues? Wasn’t it the unions and
outsiders who brought this added cost to the taxpayers
of Wisconsin? Heck, Walker won by a bigger margin than
when he was first elected. Sorry whiners, you spent a ton
of money and paid a lot of outside agitators to come in
and you lost. You whiners should look to impeaching
your union leaders for wasting your hard earned money
or recall them. Even your “union” pres couldn’t spare
but one tiny tweet for the cause. Heck, your dem heroes can always
run away again when Walker makes another bold move.
All you whiners can make up any excuse you want, like Shultzie
and Maddow and O’Donnell did last night. They were pathetic
and pitiful to watch. Maddow touted this as being the most
critical election and then fluffed it off as nothing. PUTRID! And
you are supposed to be intelligent sheep?BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
really
Scott Walker/Paul LePage for President/vice… What a team they would make.