A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
It is almost always overshadowed by statewide and congressional races, but the battle for control of the Maine Legislature may be the state’s most interesting event in the Nov. 8 elections.
For most of this year, national observers have said Maine’s races could be some of the nation’s tightest. That chatter picked up in the spring, when Republicans were riding high in the polls. Democrats have clawed back some momentum since then, but the battle still looks close.
The forecasting site CNalysis rates the Maine House of Representatives as one of only two “toss-up” lower chambers in the country, while tilting the Senate toward Democrats. But the majority party is far from complacent in their bid to hold that chamber.
Groups led by the coordinated Democratic campaign have poured early money into Senate races that got going earlier than in the less-predictable House. They have dominated outside spending to date, putting in nearly $2 million to Republicans’ $326,000 as of Friday morning. (Here’s my data breaking down the districts.)
Their top priority is Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, who is in a tough race with Rep. Sue Bernard, R-Caribou, in a district trending toward Republicans. Democrats have spent a staggering $340,000 there, which is $79,000 more than they have deployed anywhere else. Bernard’s allies have spent another $49,000 there, making the race the top battleground so far.
Senate Democrats are in protection mode. Their second-biggest total to date has been spent on Sen. Craig Hickman, D-Winthrop, who is facing Rep. Jeff Hanley, R-Pittston. The only other race to see more than $275,000 in spending to date is the one between former Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, and former Rep. Bettyann Sheats, D-Auburn. The seat is being vacated by Sen. Ned Claxton, D-Auburn.
House races are just beginning to take off. Republicans actually got out to an early spending advantage, though Democrats have now spent $422,000 to their $312,000. Only six races in the 151-seat chamber have seen more than $20,000 in spending to date and they run the gamut geographically.
The biggest one has been a tantalizing matchup in the Augusta suburbs between Rep. Tavis Hasenfus, D-Winthrop, and former Rep. Corey Wilson, a Republican who once represented half of Augusta but now lives in Readfield. It has already seen $31,000 in outside spending with more likely to come.
In second place is an open Windham seat where a Republican newcomer defeated a former lawmaker in a primary, something that could increase Democratic chances. Next is the race between Rep. Holly Stover, D-Boothbay, who ousted an incumbent in the 2018 election, and Boothbay Harbor selectman Tricia Warren, the Republican nominee.
As these cases show, there are interesting races up and down the state that are affected by increasing north-south polarization and candidate quality. The gaps between many of these hopefuls and the standard-bearers of their parties in bigger races will be the thing to watch as returns come in. We are just over three weeks away from that.